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Euan has questioned no matter whether a rise in water Slash such as this could have a big sufficient effect on production to clarify the many declines we see. Let me test to make an estimate on how large it may be. We can not do this with any precision with the fractional movement curve simply because we do not have an actual fractional stream curve for this Component of Ghawar. On the other hand, there is other data in Paper #93439 which will allow us estimate this. In particular, the paper consists of a discussion of what portion of output comes from at the rear of the flood entrance, versus in front of the flood front.
So Because of this, in a mixture of just about all oil, the water cannot stream whatsoever. Conversely, after there is almost all h2o, the oil cannot movement whatsoever (which sets an higher limit on the quantity of oil that will at any time be recovered by a water flood).
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For instance, the tutorial I referenced before displays this photograph for an average fractional stream curve:
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